Memory lane….let’s take a trip….
Labour’s Hugh Gaitskell in October 1962, predicted the truth five decades ago….
‘Of course, the Tories have been indulging in their usual double-talk. When they go to Brussels they show the greatest enthusiasm for political union.
‘When they speak in the House of Commons they are most anxious to aver that there is no commitment whatever to any political union.’
What the Tories two-faced? You are kidding pal!…..Remember this…..
Reform EU or Britain quits – George Osborne lays down ultimatum
George Osborne will today deliver a stark warning to Britain’s European partners that the UK will leave the EU unless it embarks on whole-scale economic and political reform.
“The biggest economic risk facing Europe doesn’t come from those who want reform and renegotiation – it comes from a failure to reform and renegotiate.
“It is the status quo which condemns the people of Europe to an ongoing economic crisis and continuing decline.”
“There is a simple choice for Europe: reform or decline. Our determination is clear: to deliver the reform, and then let the people decide.”
British PM Cameron lays out terms, warns Britain could still leave EU
Britain would “think again” over its EU membership if no deal is reached.
Just last November Cameron said we could have to consider leaving the EU…..
Oh and remember this from his Bloomberg speech…..rings hollow today…….
Proponents of both sides of the argument will need to avoid exaggerating their claims.
However, now, it’s a looming, blooming, apocalypse if we leave the EU…
UK economy ‘could be 6% smaller’ after EU exit, warns Treasury
Britain’s national income could be 6% smaller by 2030 if the UK leaves the European Union, a major report by the Treasury will say.
The 200-page report says the size of the cut in gross domestic product would be the equivalent of about £4,300 a year for every household.
Trade barriers will be higher – hitting exports – and investment will be lower both within the UK and from abroad after an EU exit, the report argues.
George Osborne: UK would be ‘permanently poorer’ outside EU
The UK would be “permanently poorer” outside the European Union, Chancellor George Osborne has warned ahead of the in-out vote on membership on 23 June.
So how times change eh? One minute it’s a reasonable and appropriate action to take to leave the EU if it remained unreformed, the next it is the end of the world if we do….and of course it is unreformed.
But then abrupt changes of tack and opinion are not unusual for Osborne….and nor is incompetence at economic forecasting and management…remember the omnishambles in 2012? Of course that was just one of many to come….2016 just the latest. But also remember the frenetic BBC analysis, the forensic way the BBC poured over every little detail so as to better embarass Osborne….as I say how times change when it comes to Osborne’s doomladen prophecy about leaving the EU, the BBC doesn’t seem too keen to ask too many difficult questions.
But let’s first consider Osborne’s opinion on how the economy is running.
In November last year things were looking up and he and Cameron were promising us the world…Here they are seeming very pleased with themselves in 2015…
But hang on, just three months later after giving us his barnstorming prediction of economic boom the forecast was suddenly turned upside down and we were heading for recession…
George Osborne warns of further spending cuts in Budget
Chancellor George Osborne has warned he may have to make fresh cuts to public spending in next month’s Budget.
Mr Osborne told the BBC global economic turmoil and slower growth meant “we may need to undertake further reductions”…as figures showed the UK economy was smaller than expected.
Labour’s John McDonnell said it was “a total humiliation” for Mr Osborne and that the British people would end up paying for Mr Osborne’s own failures.
He accused the chancellor of having “sneaked off to China to admit what Labour have been saying for months – that his recovery is built on sand”.
“Far from paying our way, Osborne’s short-term economics means Britain is deeper and deeper in hock to the rest of the world,” he said. “He is threatening the British people with paying an even higher price for his own failures.”
And what of the 2016 budget…surely George got it right this time? Er no…..
It’s official: this is George Osborne’s worst Budget since the ‘omnishambles’ of 2012
This is another ‘omnishambles’ on an epic scale for Osborne, and he may drag the government down with him
George seems to have a little bit of trouble forecasting the economics even three months ahead…never mind forecasting the political reaction to his stunts. How can he be forecasting the prospects for our economy up until 2030, predicting an economy in ruins without the EU to prop us up?
What does the BBC think?
Have they gone in all guns blazing, tearing his figures apart and examinig them in the minutest detail as per norm with a Tory budget? Not really.
Things didn’t start well with this rather upbeat and positive spin on Osborne’s claims from Kamal Ahmed:
UK economy ‘could be 6% smaller’ after EU exit, warns Treasury
Nick Robinson levelled things out a bit on the Today programme (08:10) with an interview with Osborne that asked the right questions but didn’t get bogged down in the figures too much.
We also had Brillo on Sunday, slightly off thread but about the EU, tackling Tristram Hunt, asking the questions that you very rarely hear on the BBC about what the risks might be of staying in the EU such as increased immigration, economic risk of being dragged down with the EU and a forced marriage as the EU grinds inevitably towards ever-closer union taking us with it. Hunt blustered and gave us bland, sweeping answers that answered nothing really.
Back to the economic apocalypse of a Brexit and we have the BBC’s ‘Reality Check’…..which seemed merely to be playing at impartiality and in reality was just putting a positive spin on the figures.
It tells us that Osborne may be exaggerating slightly but he’s in the right ballpark…the trend is still a negative one if we leave.
The BBC tells us that it has examined the economic models used to make the predictions and…
If you are still reading, the thing to take away from this morning’s events is this: ignore the headline figures – the Treasury thinks that leaving the EU would be bad for the UK economy, reducing its output by a considerable amount.
Ah…so we’re still doomed even of you ignore the models….er….aren’t the Treasury figures based on the models so how can we ignore them, how can we judge the truth of the treasury figures without knowing if they were generated using a credible model?
What if you really want to get to grips with the models, do they stand up to scrutiny?….
If what you care about is economic modelling, then this is a perfectly respectable piece of modelling, following broadly similar methodology to the one from the Centre for Economic Performance,
So the models are trific? Guido thinks not….
Lobby journalists and MPs have reacted with bewilderment at the Treasury’s use of a number of complex mathematical equations to underpin their argument for Brexit. This much vaunted analysis was based on a “gravity model”, a device used to model “trade flows between two countries as a function of economic variables such as GDP, geographic..and cultural variables”.
Well, the Treasury’s gravity model has been discounted numerous times for its use in predicting the impact that large scale economic changes will have on the economy.
Regardless, let’s get things in perspective as the BBC guides us through the maths…
One useful thing from this Treasury report is that it helps put into context the significance of the UK’s contribution to the EU Budget. The Treasury says that the 6% of GDP in 2030 would cut tax receipts by £36bn, dwarfing the contributions to the EU. Indeed, the Treasury has reached the £36bn figure after subtracting the UK’s £7bn a year average net contribution.
See what I mean… the BBC just oozes pro-Osborne fudgery, it looks like analysis but always edges towards the pro-EU side….’We’ve examined the figures…yes, maybe slightly off, but the general thrust is correct…we’re doomed, doomed I tell you, if we Brexit!’
Or to put it in BBCSpeak:
Reality Check verdict: The precise figure is questionable and probably not particularly helpful. If you want to be influenced by economic modelling, the useful thing to take away is that the Treasury thinks leaving the EU would be bad for the economy, by an amount that would dwarf the savings from not having to contribute to the EU Budget.
So you might think leaving will mean more money but in fact…we’re doomed.
As I have said the BBC isn’t tearing Osborne a new one over his figures as they normally do, and even seem to be giving a bit of subdued cheerleading. Robinson did a decent interview though and he will be giving Gove a going over on Tuesday at some time…no doubt 08:10. Kuenssberg gives a mainly pro-Osborne analysis here being fairly dismissive of the Brexit camp.
Osborne is essentially getting away with murder here…the BBC not really holding him to account despite the rain of scorn being poured down on him and his figures from other quarters…and not much of a look back at Osborne and Cameron’s hypocrisy and failures on leaving the EU and the budgets.
Why do we get nothing like this from the BBC? Here is Nelson Fraser in the Spectator giving Osborne a going over [It will be interesting to see if Nelson gets an interview on the BBC about this…they usually drag him when he has something critical to say about Osborne’s handiwork]…
The deceptions behind George Osborne’s Brexit report
Sometimes, George Osborne’s dishonesty is simply breathtaking. Let’s set aside the way he has positioned himself over the years (if he believed that leaving the European Union “would be the most extraordinary self-inflicted wound” he might have told us – and his constituents – earlier, rather than proceeding with the farce of renegotiation). But it’s his maths, today, which shames his office – and his use of this maths to make the entirely false suggestion that the Treasury thinks Brexit would make you £4,300 worse off. For anyone who cares about honesty in politics, and the abuse (and reporting) of statistics, this is an interesting case study.
And here’s Allister Heath in the Telegraph…no prizes for guessing the thrust of the article…
The Treasury’s ‘dodgy dossier’ on Brexit is beneath contempt
Osborne’s figures are so wildly, and obviously, meant to be negative that there should be no other reaction than scorn for what is blatantly a piece of cobbled together propaganda from the Osborne run Treasury….and yet the BBC’s reaction is one of sympathetic indulgence and even endorsement….the figures may be slightly off but you know what…at least Osborne’s got some figures and they look good enough to pass a quick inspection.
As for all the fancy doodlings? What’s that old saying?…If you can’t hide it decorate it….guess that’s what’s going on here….baffling us with bullshit…
I have seen these type of formulas in Astronomy. They only tell you about the past because that’s what the formulas are built on. But they always turn out to be useless rubbish because (1) Conditions Change (2) Its impossible to find all the factors (3) Factor Blindness. For instance only 10 percent of trade is with the EU, but are they using a factor of 100 percent? But wont the other 90 percent be set free to thrive if we get rid of Osborne after Brexit?
On the other hand, I find that correlations always produce the correct answer, For instance the two largest economies in Western Europe not in the EU, Switzerland and Norway, are the two richest countries in Western Europe.
But here is a more intelligent analysis, with a forward by a Mensa member.
Click to access Cost_of_the_EU_2015_V_4_1_12_15.pdf
Anyone would think that most politicians are liars and not to be trusted. Personally , I cannot conceive how these talentless parasites can sleep at night.
In my opinion, we cannot allow this game to be played by the Remainiacs’ rules. If we allow them to distract us with arguments about money we’ll lose the Referendum. They key issue to be hammered home at every opportunity is the question of who we want to govern us; do we want our Parliament to be the seat of our government, with the right to appoint our servants who go there to represent us? Or do we want to be ruled by foreigners based in Brussels, whom we have not elected, cannot remove from office and whose loyalties are to the collectivist construct that is the EU? For me, that’s what this is all about and we cannot allow the likes of Mr Cameron, the bbc, the CBI, the BSE madmen and Mr Obama, to muddy the water by discussing matters that aren’t central to what we are voting for.
john,
Quite agree. This is what Boris, Gove and the others should be pushing and, to a certain extent , they are. One problem is that the MSM are almost totally EUriners, so it is not easy to get this message across.
What you are saying, john in cheshire, would seem to be a desired goal for any nation or state, but decades of BBC propaganda have probably convinced millions that not wanting to be ruled by foreigners “share sovreignty” is “xenophobic” or even “racist”. Sinn Feinn “we ourselves” is great as it opposes Britisb imperialism and colonialism. Self government according to the BBC is fine for any nation other than the English. The English determining the fate of England is “Little Engglanderism”., but far better a “little England” than no England at all, which is the ultimate goal of the EU claque and the pushers of uncontrolled mass immigration.
I also remember Wilson was far more pro-EEC when in office and very anti when in opposition. He only promised the 1975 referendum as a way to win extra votes in the 1974 elections (like Cameron in 2015). So both sides have done the same really.
Demon,
The strange thing is that , historically, the Tories seem to have been more “pro-Europe” than Labour. I am sure there are splits in the Labour party today but the BBC won’t report them, of course.
Wilson also wisely, or cunningly depending on your point of view, decided that Whitehall should remain neutral (at least superficially), so that the government would not split apart afterwards. In retrospect Wilson’s politics may well represent everything that I disagree with now, but in terms of political guile he could run rings around the present lot.
On the World Service, World Business Report last night they had the respected economist Roger Bootle on. He tore Osborne’s report to shreds. The poor interviewer kept putting the Remain points only to have them butchered by Roger’s precise logical points. Worth listening to if on iplayer. I have to say I wasnt expecting to here Roger Bootle on again, as the last time he was exposing some uncomfortable truths on the migration crisis.
Englands,
He wrote an excellent article in last weekend’s Telegraph ( can’t remember which one ) totally demolishing the EUriners economic and political case. On BBC , catch him while you can. He won’t be invited back !
There is no economic argument for “remaining”, never was and never will be. The EU was never based on economics, ever since the beginning. Two civil servants, one regrettably was British back between the two world wars, and then met up with Monnet at the league of Nations…another bureaucratic flop! After the second world war they got together with their idea and realising that Great Britain would never enter a single European state they came up with a “good idea”. Use deceit and lies to sell the idea piece by little piece, over time getting what they wanted, a pan european government not by democratic means but based on a group of bureaucrats. To them, this was good, everything governed by themselves, and no accountability of any kind. They would not be subject to elections, they would just build up the bureacracy which is the whole point of the breed. Naturally our weak and pitiful politicians jumped at the chance, a little lie here and there did not matter when they could rule without being blamed and so it went on. Now we are near the end game. We can get out, there is a plan, one only called “Flexcitt”, a market based plan covering all the bases and including a modification to ensure that our politicians could never again sell us out to foreigners. It is readily available on the internet in two versions, a short summary and the full book, download and learn! You will not hear of this from our EU centric politicians or the EUloving BBC.
Can you supply a url for the ‘Flexcitt’ pdf? I can’t find it with a google search.
The BBC tells us that it has examined the economic models used to make the predictions and…
Why shouldn’t we believe them? After all, the BBC has such an excellent track record of examining models – forensic in their rigour, some might say.
What do you say, Roger?