Unprecedented Rain?

 

 

Curious that no one mentions the obvious thought when during ‘Storm Desmond’ a waterfall burst into life….the first time in maybe 200 years or longer…….the obvious thought being there must have been ‘unprecedented’ rainfall back then….how is such an ‘extreme’ explained away 200 years ago?  What trick do they use to hide the decline in credibility of claims of unprecedented rainfall?

 

 

It is odd how the BBC et al trumpet ‘extremes’ in the UK and either insinuate or blatantly claim the cause is climate change regardless of whatever else is happening worldwide but when they don’t happen in the UK and the weather is average then somewhere else in the world is having extremes and the warming trend continues….

Is it to do with climate change?

We can’t say for certain that this spell of warm weather is directly linked to global warming, although it could well be a factor, BBC Weather’s Steve Cleaton says.

“Although we have seen a particularly mild spell of weather, the UK spring and summer of 2015 were relatively cool, meaning that for the UK in isolation 2015 is likely to end up being a fairly average year in terms of temperature, rainfall and sunshine statistics.”

However, on a global scale, 2015 is set to be the warmest year on record, consistent with current thinking on climate change, he says.

Warm weather a consequence of climate change?  ‘can’t say for sure…could be a factor.’   Really?   Thought the science was settled and the rise in temperature since 1950 0r so was definitely man-made.

The BBC and fellow alarmists have to play it safe due to El Nino….just how much warming is really attributable to that phenomenon?

Tropical air from the Azores and beyond is blowing in from the south west.

As is often the case in meteorology, no one specific factor can explain what has caused this influx of warm air – but this year’s strong El Nino weather phenomenon is thought to play a part.

The event occurs when the waters of the Pacific become exceptionally warm and distort weather patterns around the world.

This almost continual warm stream has also been the source of all the moisture and strong winds that brought such devastation to parts of the UK with Storm Desmond.

El Nino ‘thought to play a part’.  Talk about dodging the issue.  Here the BBC hypes not actual temperatures for 2016 but guesstimates from models and statistics……and whilst hyping climate change still tries to give the impression of considered reasoning so that you don’t think they are just scaremongering…

Met office says 2016 ‘very likely’ to be warmest on record

A new global temperature forecast from the UK’s Met Office says that 2016 is likely to be even warmer than 2015.

This year has already been provisionally declared the warmest on record thanks to a combination of global warming and a strong El Nino.

The new forecast, a combination of computer models and statistical methods, says that the global average temperature for the next 12 months is likely to be 0.84C above the 1961-1990 average.

However check this final bit of butt-covering…

The Met Office says that the rise in temperature predicted for next year may not continue indefinitely – and may slip back under 1 degree over the coming years.

But they argue that the growing warming signal can combine in unpredictable ways with smaller natural fluctuations leading to “unprecedented events”.

‘Temperatures may slip back under 1 degree over the coming years’..Really?….What?  The warmth may not continue?  Why not if it is due to man made causes?  Things may cool? Surely a cooling would indicate the warming was due almost entirely to El Nino?  Still, get the scaremongering in whilst you can making as many associations with man-made causes as possible and then retract those in later years when the alarmist propaganda has already done its work.

 

Here’s a curious statement from the Met. Office….

Annual mean precipitation over England and Wales has not changed significantly since records began in 1766. Seasonal rainfall is highly variable, but appears to have decreased in summer and increased in winter, although with little change in the latter over the last 50 years.

So we’re actually getting no more rain than is usual over a year…since 1766….winter rain may possibly have increased and summer decreased….but not in the last 50 years.

Hang on…not in the last 50 years?  Ermm…isn’t the last 50 years when the effects of man-made global warming were supposed to be arising…such as dry summers and wetter winters?  Didn’t happen though did it?

And what to make of this…

Severe windstorms around the UK have become more frequent in the past few decades, though not above that seen in the 1920s.

So windstorms are no more frequent than in the 1920’s and yet we are always told that every gusty bit of weather is due to climate change.  So we had the same climate change in th 1920’s?

 

 

Some ‘official’ graphs of rainfall and temperature....some just for December….looks like little to no change to the mean in either over a century…..