From the Daily Mail:
Here is Migration Watch’s estimate of the likely numbers of migrants from Romania and Bulgaria:
Our central estimate is that immigration from these two countries will add 50,000 a year to the UK population for the next five years of which about half is likely to be captured in the immigration statistics.
The Daily Mail gets its figures from a recent report from the supposedly neutral Oxford Migration Observatory but the OMO seem to be spinning a line that there has been no ‘surge’ in immigration from these countries…a line taken up by the BBC.
In actual fact the BBC seem to be rather coy about these figures…at least on their website. I can see no mention of this story on the website at all despite it being in the papers since Tuesday morning.
The Guardian does have a report but it plays down the numbers….
It reports this statement from the researchers…..
Madeleine Sumption, the Migration Observatory director, said: “The growth in the Romanian and Bulgarian population of the UK has been steady for the last seven years, despite transitional controls that limited their access to the labour market and welfare state in the UK. The end of these controls do not seem to have had a very significant effect.”
…but as you can see later, this conclusion, that “The growth in the Romanian and Bulgarian population of the UK has been steady for the last seven years”, is completely false.
5Live did have a report on it (16:42:45) but whilst spinning the same line of ‘no surge’ seemed to know the figures don’t really support that conclusion and gave a rather lacklustre report telling us that immigration grew at same rate as in 2013….therefore there was no significant increase in migration when restrictions relaxed….no predicted influx of migrants…..Phil Mackie said there was no significant increase year on year.
They did admit there were 250,000 Romanians and Bulgarians now working in the UK.
Whilst mocking the ‘exaggerated claims of a surge in immigration from some’ what was noticeably missing from 5Live’s report was any mention of Migration Watch’s prediction which turned out to be entirely accurate, as is so often the case. The BBC calls Migration Watch a ‘pressure group’ but doesn’t label the Oxford Migration Observatory in the same way.
Are any of those conclusions on 5Live merited by the figures?
The overall population of A2 migrants in the UK in Q3 2012 was 160,000; this increased by 45,000 to 205,000 by Q3 2013 and then increased by 47,000 to 252,000 in Q3 2014. By way of comparison, the A2 population grew by 163,000 between 2007 and 2013 – the years during which transitional controls were in place.
It claims these figures show no spike in migration…and Mackie said they showed no ‘year on year increase’…..
…… the existing data suggest it is more likely to show continued steady growth rather than the ‘significant spike’ some predicted.
But that clearly isn’t true….yes 2013 and 2014 were similar…but before that migration was an average of 27,000…somewhat different to 47,000….very selective with their choice of figures to base their conclusions on.
32,000 EU2 citizens immigrated to the UK in the year ending June 2014, a statistically significant increase from 18,000 in the previous 12 months.
A graph from the ONS shows the dramatic change in Bulgarian and Romanian immigration….note the large ‘surge’ in 2013..
5Live admitted that there were 250,000 Romanians and Bulgarians in work now…. in January and March 2013 the figure for Romanians and Bulgarians in work was only 140,000:
According to the latest official figures, the number employed in the UK between January and March actually fell. It was 140,000, down 4,000 on the final three months of 2013.
The BBC were then crowing that this ‘fall’ in numbers in january and March proved there was no influx of immigrants.
Note that most of these ‘in work’ are actually claiming to be self-employed…and can claim increased benefits based on that status:
Nearly six out of 10 Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants living in Britain last year claimed they were self-employed, allowing them full access to the welfare state, a new report has found.
The University of Oxford’s Migration Observatory said its analysis showed 59.1 per cent of workers from the two former eastern European states said they were freelance, compared with just 14 per cent of the native UK population.
The figure was also far higher than the 15 per cent of self-employed people from the eight former Communist states – such as Poland – which joined the EU in 2004.
“Regardless of motivation, this status did provide access to the benefits system,” said the report.
[Migration Watch saying]
“Whether or not you call it benefit tourism, there is no doubt that the access to in-work benefits that is granted to the self-employed is a very strong financial incentive to come to the UK, especially for those with families.
“Those with a spouse and two children who declared only the minimum wage would get an extra £350 a week on top of their pay”.
The ‘Left’ are definitely playing down the figures and coming to conclusions not warranted by the facts. The BBC, on the Webiste at least, has pretty much decided to ignore the report, 5Live aside, presumably because the figures don’t support their case when examined carefully.
It is quite clear that immigration from these countries has gone up significantly in the last two years…and with net migration standing at 260,000 overall (net migration of foreigners actually being 310,00 into this country when discounting British natives emigrating) it is still obvious that migration is a huge problem….not just the numbers but the ‘diverse’ nature of those coming here from vastly different cultures….not something the BBC likes to emphasise…however when it suits, as when it can use such a narrative to harangue the government over its ‘failures’, it does highight such issues:
The government was warned of “significant immigration, security and reputational risks to the UK” of allowing Libyan soldiers on visits off a Cambridgeshire base, it has emerged.
Through a Freedom of Information Act (FoI) request to the MoD, the BBC has learnt a security and risk assessment document produced prior to the solders’ arrival warned of the potential danger of allowing unsupervised visits.
The report by the Cross-Whitehall Libya Security Compact Delivery Group said: “Outward recreational visits pose significant immigration, security and reputational risks to the UK.”
The pre-training security report pointed to “widespread” sexual violence during the period of conflict in Libya, and added there was “some evidence that it is a significant domestic problem which could be reinforced by cultural attitudes and entrenched by a lack of justice for those affected and for perpetrators”.
So importing people who have ‘cultural attitudes’ at odds with the British culture and values poses a ‘significant domestic problem.
Go figure. Still, remember to celebrate that diversity.