Fascinated listening to Roger Harrabin talking through his hat about the rainfall records (2 hrs 49 mins 20 secs).
He wraps up his report in a vast number of equivocations…..so many that you might start to believe that he didn’t really believe his own report….it’s quite clear that the man made global warming advocates have had their fingers burnt so many times with failed predictions that they now refuse to state anything absolutely categorically…except that global warming is defintitely man made.
Some useful hedging phrases:
– Massive variablity from year to year (in weather)
– Figures are preliminary
–There is a trend of increasing episodes of extreme rain…but it could just stop
–Predicting climate in the UK is particularly difficult
– Weather in the UK is much more unpredictable
… he isn’t even sure about his ‘scientific consensus’….‘I think that one thing underpins this, and there are a lot of caveats around this, the Earth has got warmer.’
Ah of course…global warming.
What is it about the rain that means we get more floods now?
‘The issue is the way it falls in sudden bursts not the amount of rain.‘
Not where I live……lots of floods around here and yet no ‘extreme rain’ falling in awesomely heavy bursts…..it floods because the rain falls over a long period of time rather than in one deluge….the ground is sodden and eventually cannot soak up anymore water…then it floods.
It would be interestig, sort of, to sit down and check the Met Office stats…..but life is too short…however a quick perusal might raise a few questions when you look at historic data for rainfall and sunshine levels in various locations.
Looking back over 100 years and you might see that some places have become cooler and have less rain…or stayed very similar.
These so called ‘record’ weather events must be based upon very slim margins or increases in whichever data is selected.
Bradford’s worst rainfall year was 2007 but otherwise is fairly average with 2012 being lower than average by a long way for rain.
Lowestoft looks to have less rain…..in 1915 123 mm and 2012 109 mm.
Eskdalemuir had 313 mm in 1921 but only 246 mm in 2012.
Heathrow seems to have remained fairly static weather wise…whilst Oxford has had more rain.
Which all raises the question…just which figures does the Met Office use to judge a ‘record’ year?
I’m no expert but it is apparent that selective data can easily be used to massage figures….just limiting the period that is examined from 1960 onwards limits the credibility of any claimed record.
This does seem to be a non-story in the scale of things and not based on anything really concrete….yes it has rained for long periods…but is that really so unusual? Look back over 100 years and it doesn’t seem at all unusual….isn’t Britain famous for its rain?
Even Harrabin admits…it could just stop.
Inconvenient facts I guess…just like that one about ‘no warming for the last 16 years’.
More Met Office historic data here