Historians in the future

may be interested in this BBC article, outlining the BBC’s plan to join forces with a climate change study harnessing the power of thousands of personal computers. This quote sums up my concerns:

‘Frances McNamara, the BBC’s producer for the experiment, said the project would give people a chance to be part of efforts to tackle a warming world.’

Implicit in this is a wholesale acceptance of the phenomenon of man made global warming- scientists, public and media, a ‘full house’, apart from politicians. A BBC project is being undertaken where the story is already decided. I am sure this will be very cosy indeed. Nothing the BBC like better than to know the script before they start.

But historians in the future might be interested in how the ‘science community’ managed to distract themselves from discrete, important, specific science concerning the environment by means of a popular theory that was embraced as fact and became the way for science to unlock finances and the public interest in an irresistible way.

Of course they might not be interested in that at all, but it should be a condition of NEWS reporting that one never knows.

Could this be a prime example of ‘junk science’? (click the link to see what the big bad Fox has to say about the general state of play)

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99 Responses to Historians in the future

  1. Rick says:

    I thought it was a feature of Linux that you could link clusters of PCs into a quasi-supercomputer, I mean doesn’t Google use 100.000 Linux Servers as a supercomputer array ?

       1 likes

  2. Rob Read says:

    Unix is an O/S that you get the source code for.
    Linux is a O/S based on Unix for the PC.

    I’d bet a zillion quid that google don’t use Linux and they’ve re-written their own.

       1 likes

  3. archduke says:

    they’ve written their own hacked version of the Linux kernel, and their own filesystem called GoogleFS.

    One of the top developers for Plan 9 also works for them.

    no thats not a joke -Plan 9 , from Bell Labs. experimental OS to supercede Unix itself. Google have the chief rocket scientist.

       1 likes

  4. archduke says:

    “I thought it was a feature of Linux that you could link clusters of PCs into a quasi-supercomputer”

    there IS a distro variant called Beowulf , that allows you to do that – basically you can build a supercomputer in your garage. but its a variant, rather than core to the standard Linux kernel.

       1 likes

  5. archduke says:

    i dont quite understand where this climateprediction thing is coming from.

    the worlds most powerful supercomputer is the Earth Simulator – located in Yokohama, just south of Tokyo.

    http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/05/03/1019441438865.html

    “In terms of speed, it is capable of making 35 trillion calculations a second. ”

    “built to predict global changes in climate, weather and earthquakes”

    i dunno – i hate to be a party pooper, but SETI is just so much more , for want of a better word, cheerful, optimistic, than doom laden climate stuff.

    i mean, who wants to be the guy or girl who wins the prize saying that their data set predicted that the Ice Age will arrive in 2035, August 12th at 2.32pm ?

    not me, thats for sure.

       1 likes

  6. Rob Read says:

    A quick persusal of “a New kind of science” would tell you that Global Climate “simulation” is high tech soothsaying.

    Which is a nice way of saying they are the neo-priests of GAIA worship.

       1 likes

  7. will says:

    On BBC1 10pm News they went straight from a report on this topic to the weather forecast.

    The forecaster stated that the future climate simulation was a similar process to that used for the weather forecast.

    The BBC climate change reporter must have winced, as I’m sure that I must have been 1 of many who immediately thought along the lines of how inaccurate the forecast for tomorrow was likely to be.

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  8. will says:

    Now, this is a result of (D)HYS becoming more HYS

    A TORRENT of racist and abusive postings on the BBC’s Test Match Special website has forced the corporation to close its message board.

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2041076,00.html

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  9. GCooper says:

    will writes:

    “I’m sure that I must have been 1 of many who immediately thought along the lines of how inaccurate the forecast for tomorrow was likely to be.”

    Precisely! I have reason to monitor the accuracy of BBC weather forecasts and ‘lamentable’ would be doing them a kindness.

    That these idiots have the audacity to get up on their hind legs and preach about what the climate may, or may not, be doing even 48 hours from now is laughable.

       1 likes

  10. chris says:

    Italian minister puts Mohammad cartoon on T-shirts
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060214/wl_nm/religion_cartoons_italy_dc_1
    I might be mistaken but I believe this provocative news story concerning Roberto Calderoli, is being totally ignored by bbc news. This news item does not tie in with the bbcs attempt to return this story to the back burner and give the general (false)impression that things are returning back to normal.

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  11. Gary Powell says:

    I think the World has gone collectively MAD. Or has got the same” big goverment “disease it contracted a few years before 1914 and 1939”. This world is now set on the path of a big war. Sad but human beings just get to stupid every 2 or 3 generations. It takes a lott of death just for mankind to get its self back on track. The climate is such a really really large thing, that only a politician or the BBC could believe that mankind was really capable crewing it up on its own. But surly not even the BBC, DC or TB are arragant enough to think that they are capable of repairing it.

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  12. Gary Powell says:

    This Quote is by Winston Churchil the father of this nation.

    It is difficult enough to do the right thing. But it is much simpler than knowing what the right thing is.

    Politicians should have this tattoed on their forskins. It is all they are fit to play with.

       1 likes

  13. Gary Powell says:

    Hitler was very famous for his “divide and rule” tactics for obtaining and retaining power. Further evidence today that this most un liberal goverment in Britain since Oliver Cromwell is now dangerous, came today. They dont have the cash to ban fags. But they do want to show you what they think about your Liberty. 15 million people made second class citizens in one day. Adolf only managed 2 million.

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  14. Richy1524 says:

    OT

    EUROSOC has commentary on BBC coverage of the parade by moderate muslims at the weekend.

    http://www.eursoc.com/news/fullstory.php/aid/939/The_Cringe_Continues.html

       1 likes

  15. archduke says:

    “That these idiots have the audacity to get up on their hind legs and preach about what the climate may, or may not, be doing even 48 hours from now is laughable.”

    is it just me, or does anyone else miss those isobars hi/low pressure stuff on the beeb weather reports?

       1 likes

  16. archduke says:

    Gary -> i understand the health arguments for public areas – but private clubs?

    no more cigars after dinner at some posh London gentlemans club? i dunno. i’m not a member of something like that, but it’s terribly British. these clubs have existed for 300 odd years.
    Tory grandies to step outside to have a cigar? i dont think so.

    the lords will skewer the bill.

       1 likes

  17. DrD says:

    We’re fighting with this same nonsense in Canada. I’ve reviewed the UN’s scientific basis for the Kyoto accord and it’s pure junk. It’s internally contradictory in several respects and uses very dubious surrogate endpoints to rationalize its projections; and even those suffer the death of a thousand qualifications. The Kyoto accord itself is so constructed that any developed world signatory to it could fulfill its obligations by simply cutting a deal (and a cheque of course) to a selected developing nation. Check out “The Friends of Science”. They’re a group of earth scientists with a great website debunking the whole Kyoto thing with a lot of sound scientific facts and analysis. Although I rather doubt the environmental scare industry is truly interested at least you’ll have the science at your finger tips to burst individuals’ bubbles.

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  18. Rick says:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/02/15/cnshexec15.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2006/02/15/ixcitytop.html

    See if the BBC covers this story………..Urenco is the firm that supplied gas-centrifuge technology to Pakistan and thereby to N Korea, Iran, Libya, Iraq………….to enrich uranium

       1 likes

  19. CHarlie says:

    OT-

    I see the bunnyhuggers have been at it again in Devon.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/devon/4713952.stm

    Interesting to note that thier chums at the Beeb illustrate the story wiv a fuffy iccle piglet aaaah, and then helpfully provide a lilnk to more sabs – er, sorry, concerned animal lovers, on the right.

       0 likes

  20. Sarge says:

    Dream up a scheme connected to global warming, employ hundreds of lefty veggies, get someone else to foot the bill. Job creation.

       1 likes

  21. CHarlie says:

    And am I the only one to find leaving lots of computers on in an attempt to predict climate change slightly ironic?

       1 likes

  22. Eamonn says:

    I imagined that Beeb bias was concentrated in the news analysis programmes (Today, PM etc). However, random listening has shattered my comfortable assumptions.

    A couple of days ago I switch on in mid evening to hear some leftie academic explaining how it was wrong to drop the atomic bomb on Japan. Of course the Beeb does everything it can to support this “they didn’t need to do it because Japan was on its knees” scenario. I wonder if Beeb employees would have relished touring middle America informing parents of the deaths of their sons if a land invasion of Japan had gone ahead?

    Then yesterday at 4.30pm I listen to part of a programme where more leftie academics explained the joys of comprehensive education, whilst trashing private schools and grammar schools and any form of selection. These people are seriously creepy, since they are willing to sacrifice children to their ideals. Of course the Beeb commentator went along with all this nonsense.

    Even when I wake up very early in the morning and listen to the farming programme I am assualted with tales of bad farmers who are environmentally unfriendly, and really, how could they want to kill all those fluffy brock the badgers?

    Honestly, the Guardian world view pervades all levels of Radio 4.

       1 likes

  23. the_camp_commandant says:

    will:-

    I must have been 1 of many who immediately thought along the lines of how inaccurate the forecast for tomorrow was likely to be.

    On a similar note, we can’t control the temperature inside the office building I work in. So why does the climate change clergy think we can control the temperature of the planet?

       1 likes

  24. phil C says:

    Science generally consists of 2 main parts. Concrete, non-disputable facts and then arm waving ‘conclusions’ drawn from the facts. When you look in detail, these conclusions are little more than the expert’s opinions, open to contradiction and often simply ‘scientise’ a particular emotional or political point of view.

    Darwinian evolution – you don’t believe in the Bible so here’s the alternative. 150years of development of the ‘theory’ and yet still not a single undisputed example of one species in the process of evolving into another. Actually there is still no universally accepted definition of ‘species’. The power of the Darwinians is that if you don’t believe then you must be a nutty creationist and as no one wants that, Darwin is accepted, taught as fact throughout schools • and there is no allowable debate. Have a read of Richard Milton’s “Shattering the Myths of Darwinism” for a non religious critique of Darwinian evolution.

    With Global Warming we have the same situation. You hate capitalism, don’t like smelly cars, hate yourself for throwing away a jam pot. Want an easy scapegoat so here’s the alternative. CO2 warms up the atmosphere, America produces most of it and we’re all going to die. Find me one scientist actually working with the global climate (not a computer simulation) who fully understands how the climate works and I might listen but please no more of the ‘scientists now agree’

    Science is wonderful when it sticks the simple hard-facts about relatively simple situations buts once it starts making predictions about hugely complex systems (human body, evolution of life, global climates etc) it is stretching way beyond its capabilities.

    In the past, people thought the world was going to end because we had been bad and God was coming to punish the unrighteous. Today we are too sophisticated to believe in God but have exactly the same mindset. Today we are bad and Mother Nature is getting ready to punish the unrighteous.

    The BBC loves Global Warming as it is a great stick with which to beat the Americans – especially Bush but the Global warming phenomenon is a really a psychological not ecological problem

       1 likes

  25. Jeffrey Mushens says:

    Just because a lot of tree huggers believe in the dangers of climate change does not make them wrong. It’s pretty clear that average global temperatures are increasing, and it would be astonishing if man made activity did not contribute to that. Indeed a recent article in Scientific American said that human activity had raised temperatures since 8000 BC and probably held an Ice Age at bay! The problem is that we don’t know if the planet is warming naturally in which case we need to really cut back on green-house gases pronto or are we staving off another Ice Age. For my own part, coupled with the evidence that daylight is a lot less bright than even 40years ago – probably due to particles from air flights in the upper atmosphere – I think we need to cut back on the green house gases. Kyoto is probably a bad way to do it, maybe nuclear/renewables is better. Oh, and the Gulf Stream thing. The Atlantic Conveyor may well weken due to global warming as the Arctic glaciers melt. As N Europe is on same latitude as Labrador/Newfoundland, a weker Gulf Stream with global warming could still see N Europe a lot colder.

       1 likes

  26. Eamonn. says:

    The problem is that the BBC assumes the link between human activity (specifically that by the USA, which is of course “the planet’s biggest polluter”) and temperature increases. This is not proven, as far as I can see, but it is implicit in everything churned out by the BBC. Things are likely to be far more complex and unpredictable than this. However, this crucial view is rarely covered by the Beeb, who are a little too willing to concentrate on the evidence as presented by scientists who rely on global warming to get their research funding.

       1 likes

  27. Socialism is Necrotizing says:

    Socialists and neo marxists have swallowed whole the entire climate change hoodwink.

    who benefits?

    Oil companies who now have a licence to keep prices high.

    Western Governments who now have a licence to keep taxes high (for welfare spending)

    Socialists and Anti Capitalists who have lost every big debate from Pol Pot to The USSR now see thier chance to finally restrain Capitalists.

    Authoritarian Socialists (BBC) who cannot stomach freeborn English men & women enjoying being free.

    the climate is changing, it always has. these islands were once covered in ice a mile thick. Wake up and smell the FairTrade Coffee!

       1 likes

  28. D Burbage says:

    The thing that is interesting about the global warming stick to bash Bush is that very soon that stick will need to be directed east not west. The Chinese are building one coal fired power station each week…. and Indian industrialisation marches on apace. Whilst the west will get its act together, there’s no guarantee that the BBC/green pressure will have any impact on our eastern friends.

       1 likes

  29. Rob Read says:

    D Burbage
    Correct! You have to get to quite a high level of wealth, and then ruin peoples critical thinking skills via an (oxymoronic) state education system before they can afford the luxury of GAIA worship.

       1 likes

  30. Simon says:

    Phil C,

    Your comparison of Darwinism to Climate change is a bad one in my opinion. Take this little snippet:

    Darwinian evolution – you don’t believe in the Bible so here’s the alternative..
    and then:
    With Global Warming we have the same situation. You hate capitalism, don’t like smelly cars, hate yourself for throwing away a jam pot. Want an easy scapegoat so here’s the alternative.

    Doesn’t stand up to scrutiny – you’re basically saying that belief in God is comparible to belief in capitalism and that alternatives are sought by people who don’t like capitalism or God. Well, capitalism is a concept that can be put in to practice and it’s effects are concrete and verifiable…. God is a completely unverifiable fairy tale. So people seeking alternatives to both are not starting from the same place.

    Evolution fits the evidence. The theory (yes it is a theory but large parts of it have been verified and extrapolation of the theory is valid science) is also constantly being modified as new evidence is discovered. If you have an alternative theory based on evidence then let’s hear it. The reason evolution is taught as 99.99999% fact when creationism isn’t is that one theory has a wealth of evidence to support it and the other doesn’t have a shred.

    As for your idea about capitalism vs global warming you may be right. Socialism has snatched up the environment club to beat capitalism with.

       1 likes

  31. Simon says:

    I second Rob Read in supporting D Burbages argument, China well tell the environment lobby where to get off in no uncertain terms.

       1 likes

  32. xj says:

    SiN: Of course the biggest cheerleader for the Kyoto Treaty in the US was…..
    Enron.
    Part of the reason Enron went bust so spectacularly is that they had sunk millions of dollars into a project to trade the “carbon emission credits” that would have been traded internationally under Kyoto. If a man is judged by the company he keeps, what does their link with Enron say about the tree-huggers’ honesty?

    D Burbage: You’re obviously not a climate “scientist”. If you were, you’d know it was impossible for the Chinese to pollute. That’s why the Kyoto treaty specifically exempted China. Evidently, it’s only the Eeeevil West, and specifically the “United SStateSS of AmeriKKKa”, that can cause pollution. Ahh, the wonders of climate “science”…

       1 likes

  33. JohnOfBorg says:

    phil C 9.44am:

    Your disparaging remarks about evolution by natural selection expose your ignorance and undermine the credibility of everything else you say.

    Global warming research is highly politicised because politically motivated scientists compete for lavish funding from similarly political national and supranational bureaucratic bodies, all with their snouts in the public trough, and all with a vested interest in getting the ‘right’ results.

    The same is true of much of what passes for research in the social ‘sciences’. I have first-hand experience of this.

    Among biologists, evolution is not a remotely contentious issue. It’s rather like the second law of thermodynamics: a logical tautology.

       1 likes

  34. Rob says:

    The BBC still claims that the violent acts against the cartoons and the general “mob rule” now in place are “protests”, thus giving them legitimacy. This article is a marvellous example:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4715084.stm

    In this article alone these incidents are what the BBC consider to be ‘protests’:

    Attacking of shops by a mob
    Burning down a KFC outlet
    Three people dying in riots
    An attack on a Norwegian mobile phone company
    Students attacking embassies

    But this is the killer; the BBC even describes these people as protesters:

    “Another violent demonstration has broken out in the town of Tank, near the Iranian border.

    A policeman was injured when some protesters opened fire indiscriminately.”

    “when some protesters opened fire indiscriminately”. Read that statement again and wonder at the mindset of someone who thinks that people who open fire indiscriminately at the police are “protesters”.

       1 likes

  35. archduke says:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/devon/4713952.stm

    sorry , the BBC has got me – that boar piglet photo IS seriously cute.

    but seriously, the nutcases who are doing this to the farmer are idiots – wild boar are *very* dangerous , especially when frightened or cornered.

    Some innocent rambler could end up seriously injured or dead because of this.

       1 likes

  36. Alan says:

    I’m not a scientist, but something tells me that the root issue is population growth, double the world population = double energy needs (predicted upon current useage in the western world) = double CO2 emmissions.

    Cruel but true, 15 years ago my A level geography teacher greeted natural disasters as a required check in the growth of a population.

    Before you accuse me of all sorts of nasty views the same could logic could be applied to New Orleans, wrong place to build a growing city.

       1 likes

  37. smallheathen says:

    While the BBC has every right to report objectively on this initiative, it is surely outside their remit to encourage others to join in, as by doing so, they actively endorse the premise on which the project is based.

       1 likes

  38. smallheathen says:

    Slightly o/t, but I’ve just listened to an interview with Paul Reynolds on 5Live from last night -link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio/noscr…live/ pods_blogs
    in which he acknowledges the importance of blogs and the MSMs inadequate response to blogging. I particularly liked the bit about Hurricane Katrina.

    Having seen Mr Reynolds’ongoing debates with several blogs, it’s a welcome departure from his original respones.( you might have to copy and paste the link)

       1 likes

  39. Socialism is Necrotizing says:

    smallheathen

    Exactly! and that is the whole point, the BBC is signed up to the grab bag of current leftwing orthodoxy and the other half of the country can whistle Dixie and pay the licence fee.

       1 likes

  40. archduke says:

    “Cruel but true, 15 years ago my A level geography teacher greeted natural disasters as a required check in the growth of a population”

    why is that geography teachers seem to have a natural urgings in the National Socialist direction?

    mine was the same!

       1 likes

  41. Rob says:

    archduke – he sounds more influenced by Thomas Malthus than Adolf Hitler.

       1 likes

  42. archduke says:

    “archduke – he sounds more influenced by Thomas Malthus than Adolf Hitler.”
    yeah , but Nazis were influenced by Malthus (along with social darwinism).

       1 likes

  43. archduke says:

    more die in pakistan over cartoons:
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/4715084.stm

    but you have to scroll right down to figure out who these “protestors” really are:

    “Correspondents say the protests are part of a rolling campaign by Islamic opposition parties ahead of a visit by US President George W Bush at the start of next month.”

       1 likes

  44. ayayay says:

    More junk science from the BBC

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/connected/main.jhtml?xml=/connected/2006/02/14/ecnaccupunct.xml

    Very dodgy documentary pushing quack medicine partly to promote a new Open University Course on alternative medicine

       1 likes

  45. Epi-Me says:

    OT Paul Reynolds does his summation of the history of the “cartoon wars”.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4708216.stm

    It’s not bad but goes a tad wayward in places.

    For instance he says:
    “The illustrators refused either because they knew that portraits of the Prophet were against Islamic tradition, or were afraid of reprisals”

    It was my understanding that the illustrators specicially feared for their lives and it was due to this fear that the cartoons were comissioned. Those (archduke?) with specific references should maybe drop Mr Reynolds a line.

    Given how vague the motivation of the publication thus becomes it means people can place there own predjudices into the gap.See http://andrewrilstone.blogspot.com/2006/02/and-its-good-night-from-him.html#comments)

    “I have to agree also about the cartoon fuss being stirred up by various Islamic governments for their own ends, but it is worth remembering that the original publication was by a fairly far right paper in Denmark and doubtless intended to further its own agenda as well.”

    As ever you will see if you read the initial posting there and the subsequent reaction the extent to which people go off half cocked due to lack of accurate reporting and at times the conveinience of simple “truths”.
    A newspaper challenging the fear brought about by the murder of two citizens in the past couple of years is indeed forwarding their own agenda, but it should be an agenda which we all share.
    It is a shame if anyone would construe this as a “right wing” agenda due to poor reporting.

       1 likes

  46. archduke says:

    but to be fair he does mention the egyptian october 2005 publication.

    on the cartoonist lives issue:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/06/AR2006020601258.html

    “He could not find one. Denmark’s artists seemed to fear for their lives. In turning down the job they mentioned the fate of Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh, murdered by an Islamic fundamentalist for harshly criticizing fundamentalism.”

       1 likes

  47. Sarge says:

    BBC 1 News – Bridgette and Anna discuss the “very shocking photos” from Abu Grab including prisoners self harming. Obviously Bridgette and Anna have not done time or been jailers. If they had they would know self harm amongst prisoners is common. The favourite tactic is head diving off the bench onto the concrete floor. This is all that is left before the straight jacket and padded cell is applied. Jailers take away ties shoe laces etc to deny them self harming articles. After one prisoner took off his wedding ring and stamped it flat then slashed his wrists rings go in the bag as well. Doesn’t stop them setting fire to themselves. Razors and matches are hidden in cracks and knives down the toilet pan.

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  48. Burbank says:

    Assume, for the sake of argument, that human-induced global warming is occuring. Then consider the Beeb’s little distributed computing effort: if the cpus are actually doing any calculations then they will be using power, which will generate heat during its production and may generate carbon dioxide. Further the cpus will generate heat during the calculation. Seems to be some irony there somewhere (especially considering nothing useful would come out the idea anyway).

       1 likes

  49. Sarge says:

    Thirty thousand years ago the ice cap extended to Spain, it slowly melted and receded and the land bridge between England and France became the English Channel. Those Cro-Magnons hunter gatherers must have been lighting too many camp fires I guess.

       1 likes

  50. Sarge says:

    BBC 1 News Anna ” The deadly N51 bird flue virus has been found in swans”. Yep it’s deadly for swans alright.

       1 likes