“I do not see the results of Muller et al as being scientifically important. However, their result may be politically important.” Ken Caldeira, AGW advocate
No other word can describe this article, presumably by Richard Black as it bears his inimitable style of half truths and missing information, other than FRAUD.
This is a deliberate attempt to mislead the readers and induce them into swallowing the man made global warming scam using the device of a fake conversion to the cause combined with dodgy, unproven ‘science’ and all wrapped up in half truths and half baked theories unsupported even by some of the scientists involved in the research.
It is quite evident that who ever authored this BBC article had a specific aim…to ‘sell’ AGW to us…they have ignored easily available information that shows clearly that Muller was never a Sceptic and that his ‘research’ is highly questionable and the conclusions drawn from it improbable.
None of this has stopped the BBC confidently asserting, and deliberately distorting the truth, that Muller is a convert from scepticism and that his work is a validation of other climate scientists who proclaim CO2 is the cause of climate change.
The BBC claims that Muller is a newly converted believer in global warming from having been a sceptic.
But has he ever been a sceptic? He certainly wasn’t a year ago when he said this in 2011 in an article for the Wall Street Journal. ‘The case against global warming scepticism……there were good reasons for doubt until now’
He’s always believed in global warming…and now declares it’s all definitely man made…..but he gives no proof…..the only ‘proof’ is that he claims CO2 rises in correlation with temperature….therefore must be the cause of warming.
Hang on….even Prof Phil Jones of the CRU admitted that temperatures rose up to 800 years before CO2 levels did…….and now we have increasing CO2 but no temperature rise for over a decade….explain that to me.
And it seems that Muller was in fact a fully paid up member of the man made global warming fraternity in 2004: (page 2)
“If you are concerned about global warming (as I am) and think that human-created carbon dioxide may contribute (as I do), then you still should agree that we are much better off having broken the hockey stick.”
“Let me be clear. My own reading of the literature and study of paleoclimate suggests strongly that carbon dioxide from burning of fossil fuels will prove to be the greatest pollutant of human history. It is likely to have severe and detrimental effects on global climate.” – Richard Muller, 2003
The BBC got its scoop from the New York Times….but it hasn’t told you everything that Muller said….you can believe or not what he claims for temperature rises over 250 years…Judith Curry herself is sceptical of his results and refuses to be associated with them (for more of her see later).
Odd that the BBC missed out this rather big paragraph from Muller:
‘It’s a scientist’s duty to be properly skeptical. I still find that much, if not most, of what is attributed to climate change is speculative, exaggerated or just plain wrong.
Hurricane Katrina cannot be attributed to global warming. The number of hurricanes hitting the United States has been going down, not up; likewise for intense tornadoes. Polar bears aren’t dying from receding ice, and the Himalayan glaciers aren’t going to melt by 2035. And it’s possible that we are currently no warmer than we were a thousand years ago, during the “Medieval Warm Period” or “Medieval Optimum,” an interval of warm conditions known from historical records and indirect evidence like tree rings. And the recent warm spell in the United States happens to be more than offset by cooling elsewhere in the world, so its link to “global” warming is weaker than tenuous.’
What other interesting and telling bits of information did the BBC miss out….as it would detract from the ‘truth’ of this story?
For a start it misses out this review of his work:
‘His latest BEST claims are, in my view, an embarrassment. The statement that he makes in his op-ed is easily refuted.’
The BBC mentions Judith Curry…but fails to say why she didn’t back Muller’s last effort at massaging the figures……
Here is the BBC:
‘However, one collaborator on the previous tranche of Berkeley Earth project papers, Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology, declined to be included as an author on the latest one.
Commenting on the paper, Prof Curry said: “Their latest paper on the 250-year record concludes that the best explanation for the observed warming is greenhouse gas emissions. Their analysis is way oversimplistic and not at all convincing in my opinion.”‘
And here is the original story in all its glory:
‘A leading member of Prof Muller’s team has accused him of trying to mislead the public by hiding the fact that BEST’s research shows global warming has stopped.
Prof Judith Curry, who chairs the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at America’s prestigious Georgia Institute of Technology, said that Prof Muller’s claim that he has proven global warming sceptics wrong was also a ‘huge mistake’, with no scientific basis.
Prof Curry is a distinguished climate researcher with more than 30 years experience and the second named co-author of the BEST project’s four research papers. Like the scientists exposed then by leaked emails from East Anglia University’s Climatic Research Unit, her colleagues from the BEST project seem to be trying to ‘hide the decline’ in rates of global warming.
A report to be published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation includes a graph of world average temperatures over the past ten years, drawn from the BEST project’s data and revealed on its website.
This graph shows that the trend of the last decade is absolutely flat, with no increase at all – though the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have carried on rising relentlessly.
‘This is nowhere near what the climate models were predicting,’ Prof Curry said. ‘Whatever it is that’s going on here, it doesn’t look like it’s being dominated by CO2.’
In a 2004 Technology Review article, Muller supported the findings of Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick in which they criticized the research, led by Michael E. Mann, which produced the so-called “hockey stick graph” of global temperatures over the past millennium, on the grounds that it did not do proper principal component analysis (PCA). In the article, Richard Muller stated:
McIntyre and McKitrick obtained part of the program that Mann used, and they found serious problems. Not only does the program not do conventional PCA, but it handles data normalization in a way that can only be described as mistaken.
Now comes the real shocker. This improper normalization procedure tends to emphasize any data that do have the hockey stick shape, and to suppress all data that do not. To demonstrate this effect, McIntyre and McKitrick created some meaningless test data that had, on average, no trends. This method of generating random data is called “Monte Carlo” analysis, after the famous casino, and it is widely used in statistical analysis to test procedures. When McIntyre and McKitrick fed these random data into the Mann procedure, out popped a hockey stick shape!
That discovery hit me like a bombshell, and I suspect it is having the same effect on many others. Suddenly the hockey stick, the poster-child of the global warming community, turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics. How could it happen?
He went on to state “If you are concerned about global warming (as I am) and think that human-created carbon dioxide may contribute (as I do), then you still should agree that we are much better off having broken the hockey stick.’
One last thing about Muller….he has a dog in this fight….
‘Muller is President and Chief Scientist of Muller & Associates, an international consulting group specializing in energy-related issues
‘We know that in order to be effective, solutions must be sustainable… and we know that for businesses, sustainable solutions must be profitable as well.‘
Sustainable? We all know what that means…..wind turbines and solar power….all funded with heavy subsidies to the companies.
Odd that the BBC’s environmental correspondent doesn’t mention that Muller runs a company dependent on the energy sector…..as does Tim Yeo, as does Al Gore….funny how these climate crusaders all tell us how much we need to stop global warming by buying the very kit they just happen to sell.
Odd. Very odd.
Corrupt some might say.
Oh yes…how very funny that the Koch Foundation are funding this ‘research’……Black would have written that with gritted teeth!
Seems that BEST is short for ‘Best Guess’ when it comes to climate science.